New test predicts dementia 20 years ahead
The authors wanted to develop a simple scoring tool that could be used to calculate the risk of dementia for a person that has a certain set of risk factors at midlife. The dementia risk score included variables that were significantly associated with the risk of dementia later in life, including age, education, blood pressure, serum cholesterol values, body mass index and physical activity at midlife. The dementia risk score predicted dementia well and the probability of dementia increased as the risk score became greater.
The authors point out that the dementia risk score highlights the role of vascular and lifestyle related factors in the development of dementia, and could help to identify individuals who might benefit from intensive lifestyle consultations and pharmacological interventions. The authors also remind that the risk score should be validated and further improved (e.g. by adding new variables) to increase its predictive value.
Original publication: M. Kivipelto, T. Ngandu, T. Laatkainen, B. Winblad, H. Saininen, Jaakko Toumietho; "Risk score for prediction of dementia risk in 20 years among middle-aged people: a longitudinal, population based study."; Lancet Neurology 2006.
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